For the full story behind each fight, see our history of the biggest UFC upsets. This page is about the numbers.
How to Read the Payout
American odds tell you the profit on a $100 bet. At +700, a winning $100 bet profits $700 and returns $800 including your stake. The implied chance is what that price says the fighter’s probability of winning is: 100 ÷ (odds + 100). So +700 implies 12.5%, or about one win in eight. Our guide to implied probability goes deeper on the maths.
Every price here is the best closing line across sportsbooks, as tracked by BestFightOdds. Some books closed shorter, so not every bettor got these exact numbers.
The UFC Upset Payout Ladder
| # | Underdog | Best closing odds | $100 bet returns | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Sharaf def. Gable Steveson UFC 331 (2026) |
+1200 | $1,300 | 7.7% |
| 2 | Shana Dobson def. Mariya Agapova UFC Vegas 7 (2020) |
+950 | $1,050 | 9.5% |
| 3 | Matt Serra def. Georges St-Pierre UFC 69 (2007) |
+850* | $950 | 10.5% |
| 4 | Khama Worthy def. Devonte Smith UFC 241 (2019) |
+775 | $875 | 11.4% |
| 5 | Frankie Saenz def. Iuri Alcântara UFC Fight Night 61 (2015) |
+775 | $875 | 11.4% |
| 6 | Johnny Eduardo def. Eddie Wineland UFC Fight Night 40 (2014) |
+735 | $835 | 12.0% |
| 7 | T.J. Dillashaw def. Renan Barão UFC 173 (2014) |
+710 | $810 | 12.3% |
| 8 | Julianna Peña def. Amanda Nunes UFC 269 (2021) |
+700 | $800 | 12.5% |
| 9 | Song Yadong def. Umar Nurmagomedov UFC Shanghai (2026) |
+700 | $800 | 12.5% |
| 10 | Thiago Santos def. Ronny Markes UFC Fight Night 38 (2014) |
+660 | $760 | 13.2% |
| 11 | Jeremiah Wells def. Myktybek Orolbai UFC 330 (2026) |
+650 | $750 | 13.3% |
| 12 | Roxanne Modafferi def. Maycee Barber UFC 246 (2020) |
+650 | $750 | 13.3% |
| 13 | Joey Beltran def. Rolles Gracie UFC 109 (2010) |
+625 | $725 | 13.8% |
| 14 | Frankie Edgar def. B.J. Penn UFC 112 (2010) |
+620 | $720 | 13.9% |
| 15 | Holly Holm def. Ronda Rousey UFC 193 (2015) |
+600 | $700 | 14.3% |
*Approximate. Closing lines from 2007 were not tracked across books; +850 is the longest price commonly reported.
The Top Five Payouts
1. Sean Sharaf (+1200), UFC 331, 2026. A $100 bet returned $1,300. Sharaf’s closing price ranged from +760 to +1200 depending on the book, and he knocked out Olympic gold medallist Gable Steveson in 12 seconds. Even at the shortest closing price, a $100 bet returned $860.
2. Shana Dobson (+950), UFC Vegas 7, 2020. A $100 bet returned $1,050. Dobson’s line opened at +500 and drifted out before fight night, so the bettors who waited got almost double the payout of those who bet early.
3. Matt Serra (around +850), UFC 69, 2007. Roughly $950 back on a $100 bet. The exact closing number is uncertain for a fight this old, but it remains the longest-priced title-fight win in UFC history.
4. Khama Worthy and Frankie Saenz (+775). Both returned $875 on a $100 bet, and both are good examples of line movement: Worthy opened at +450 and Saenz at +225 before drifting out.
Why the Closing Price Matters
The same fight can pay very different amounts depending on when you bet. Frankie Saenz opened at +225 and closed as long as +775. T.J. Dillashaw opened around +305 and closed at +710. Holly Holm went the other way: she opened at +825, but money came in and she closed between +525 and +600, which is why her famous upset sits lower on this list than many people expect.
This is the same idea behind closing line value. Over a large number of bets, consistently getting a better price than the closing line is the clearest sign a bettor has an edge, whether or not any single underdog wins.
Big Payouts Are Rare for a Reason
An underdog at +700 is priced to win about one fight in eight. That means seven losing bets for every winner, and a list like this only shows the winners. Backing every long shot on a card is not a strategy; finding the ones whose true chances are better than the price says is. Our guide to betting favourites vs underdogs covers how to tell the difference.
Every one of Rob Brown’s picks has been tracked publicly at betMMA.tips since 2015, with consistent closing line value. Get free UFC picks or see the Premium plans.
Frequently Asked Questions
Sean Sharaf at UFC 331 in 2026. At his best closing price of +1200, a $100 bet returned $1,300.
At her closing odds of +525 to +600, a $100 bet returned $625 to $700. Bettors who got her opening price of +825 would have collected $925.
Multiply your stake by the odds divided by 100 to get the profit. A $50 bet at +650 profits 50 × 6.5 = $325, and returns $375 with your stake.
It means a $100 bet profits $1,200 if the underdog wins. It implies about a 7.7% chance of winning.
Odds source: closing moneylines tracked by BestFightOdds across multiple sportsbooks, checked October 2026.
About the Author
Rob Brown has been betting on MMA professionally since 2015. Every pick is publicly recorded and independently verified — no cherry-picking, no deleted bets. His full record is tracked at betMMA.tips and bettin.gs.
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