RBB Premium was reviewed by an independent, third -party betting system review service over the course of a full year period and returned a massive Return on Investment of 36% with a 79% pick rate.
Check out the full review here
RBB Premium was reviewed by an independent, third -party betting system review service over the course of a full year period and returned a massive Return on Investment of 36% with a 79% pick rate.
Check out the full review here
What is a “bankroll”?
A bankroll is money that you can set aside and invest for betting purposes only. Please only invest an amount you can afford.
What are “units”?
Units are a simple way of measuring the size of a bet. 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll. So if you have a bankroll of $10,000, a 1 unit bet would be $100, a 5 unit bet would be $500, and so on.
Compound Interest and how it works
As your bankroll grows, so will your unit size. For example, if you win $500 on an event and your bankroll increases to $10,500, 1 unit will now be $105 for you as that is now 1% of your bankroll. The same applies if you lose an event, you will decrease your unit size. You can adjust your unit size per event or monthly.
This is an investment strategy pro bettors use because it allows your bankroll to grow faster as you win, while protecting you from downswings and variance. Using this strategy with my bets over the years, I have grown a small amount of money into a bankroll that I invest to earn a full time yearly income. It requires patience and discipline, but this is the only legitimate way to win long term and make an income from betting.
Think of sports betting like the stock market; It will have ups and downs but if you keep putting your money in good positions it will go up over time. You have to stay the course to have long term success.
Decimal odds are the easiest type of odds to understand.
To calculate your winnings using decimal odds, simply multiply your stake.
Your “Stake” is the amount of money you wish to bet by the decimal number. For example…
If you placed a $100 bet at odds of 2.00, you would simply multiply 10 by 2.00 to calculate your return.
100 x 2.00 = 200.00 = $200 return from your $10 bet ($100 profit)
How about placing a $150 bet at odds of 1.57?
15 x 1.57 = 235.50 = $235.50 return from your $150 bet ($85.50 profit)
American odds are calculated based on how much money you have to bet in order to win $100. The odds are always accompanied by either a plus [+] or minus [-] symbol. The symbols determine whether you need to bet more than $100 (-) or less than $100 (+), to win $100.
This may sound confusing at first, but it doesn’t take long to get used to.
Lets jump right into an example of how American odds work. Remember that American odds are all about how much money you have to bet, in order to win $100.
Imagine the odds looked like this for a particular fight…
Fighter A = -150
Fighter B = +200
When working with American odds, you need to remember that the minus [-] symbol always means that you will have to bet more than $100 to win $100. Minus [-] odds are considered the “favourite”. Odds with the plus [+] symbol are considered the “underdogs”.
If you take a look at the odds above, you can see that Fighter A is the favourite at -150. This means that in order to win $100, you would have to bet $150.
Fighter B on the other hands is a +200 underdog. This means that you would only have to bet $50 to win $100. Here are a couple more examples using more challenging odds…
Fighter A = -600
Fighter B = +1000
In this example Fighter A has odds of -600, which means that you would have to bet $500 to win $100. Fighter B on the other hand has odds of +1000, which means you’d only have to bet $10 to win $100.
Working with American odds will take some getting used to and it can be difficult to work out the exact amount of money you will win from your bets at first.
You can practice working with American betting odds by visiting FightOdds.io and using our Odds Converter to calculate your returns.
Fractional betting odds are favoured in the United Kingdom & Ireland and they’re the most popular type of odds used in Horse Racing. Although they may look confusing at first, they’re actually not that hard to work out. Lets jump right into looking at an example of how Fractional odds work…
If you wanted to bet $50 at odds of 6/4 six to four, this is how you would work it out:
First you have to add the numbers of the fraction together, in this case it would be 6 + 4 = 10. Then divide this number by the second number, in this case 4. 10 divide by 4 = 2.5. Then multiply this number by your stake. 2.5 x 50 = 125. Your return for a $50 bet at odds of 6/4 would be $125.
(6+4 = 10) 10 divided by 4 = 2.5
2.5 x 50(stake)= $125 ($75 profit)
If you get stuck and you’d like some help calculating how betting odds work, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.
Struggling to understand how betting odds work? This guide will help you.
There are 3 different kinds of betting odds; Decimal, American and Fractional. American odds are often called Moneyline odds.
Decimal odds are the easiest type of odds to understand.
To calculate your winnings using decimal odds, simply multiply your stake.
Your “Stake” is the amount of money you wish to bet by the decimal number. For example:
If you placed a $100 bet at odds of 2.00, you would simply multiply 10 by 2.00 to calculate your return.
100 x 2.00 = 200.00 = $200 return from your $10 bet ($100 profit)
How about placing a $150 bet at odds of 1.57?
15 x 1.57 = 235.50 = $235.50 return from your $150 bet ($85.50 profit)
American odds are calculated based on how much money you have to bet in order to win $100. The odds are always accompanied by either a plus [+] or minus [-] symbol. The symbols determine whether you need to bet more than $100 (-) or less than $100 (+), to win $100.
This may sound confusing at first, but it doesn’t take long to get used to.
Lets jump right into an example of how American odds work. Remember that American odds are all about how much money you have to bet, in order to win $100.
Imagine the odds looked like this for a particular fight…
Fighter A = -150
Fighter B = +200
When working with American odds, you need to remember that the minus [-] symbol always means that you will have to bet more than $100 to win $100. Minus [-] odds are considered the “favourite”. Odds with the plus [+] symbol are considered the “underdogs”.
If you take a look at the odds above, you can see that Fighter A is the favourite at -150. This means that in order to win $100, you would have to bet $150.
Fighter B on the other hands is a +200 underdog. This means that you would only have to bet $50 to win $100. Here are a couple more examples using more challenging odds…
Fighter A = -600
Fighter B = +1000
In this example Fighter A has odds of -600, which means that you would have to bet $500 to win $100. Fighter B on the other hand has odds of +1000, which means you’d only have to bet $10 to win $100.
Working with American odds will take some getting used to and it can be difficult to work out the exact amount of money you will win from your bets at first.
You can practice working with American betting odds by visiting FightOdds.io and using our Odds Converter to calculate your returns.
Fractional betting odds are favoured in the United Kingdom & Ireland and they’re the most popular type of odds used in Horse Racing. Although they may look confusing at first, they’re actually not that hard to work out. Lets jump right into looking at an example of how Fractional odds work…
If you wanted to bet $50 at odds of 6/4 six to four, this is how you would work it out:
First you have to add the numbers of the fraction together, in this case it would be 6 + 4 = 10. Then divide this number by the second number, in this case 4. 10 divide by 4 = 2.5. Then multiply this number by your stake. 2.5 x 50 = 125. Your return for a $50 bet at odds of 6/4 would be $125.
(6+4 = 10) 10 divided by 4 = 2.5
2.5 x 50(stake)= $125 ($75 profit)
If you get stuck and you’d like some help calculating how betting odds work, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.
Main Card
125 lbs.: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Rematch for the belt. In the first fight it was about to be 2-2 heading into the final round before Grasso got the submission win. Grasso won the 1st round by landing the better shots on the feet then Shevchenko took the next 2 with top time. In the 4th round, Grasso made adjustments and started to defend the takedowns while Shevchenko appeared to slow down. Near the end of the round, Shevchenko made a big mistake throwing a telegraphed spin kick which led to Grasso taking the back and sinking in the rear naked choke.
I expect this to be another close fight and it will come down to who can make the better adjustments. I think Shevchenko will lean more on her grappling this fight, but she may be wary after getting submitted and Grasso did a good job defending on the ground in the first fight. I favor Grasso’s boxing and speed on the feet over Shevchenko’s kicks. Grasso is also in her prime at 30 years old and still improving while Shevchenko is regressing at 35 and is arguably 0-2 in her last two. The record on champions getting their belt back in immediate rematches isn’t good, especially when there’s an age gap. I like the +150 odds on the younger fighter to make the necessary adjustments and think the line should be tighter.
170 lbs.: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Kevin Holland
Jack is a prospect with good pocket boxing and suspect grappling. His competition hasn’t been the best so far, but he has handled most of them accordingly besides his last fight where he went to a split decision with a fairly unknown fighter- though it was a short notice opponent with a grappling heavy style. Holland is a dangerous rangey striker who never really shoots for takedowns but is very dangerous with submissions when the opportunity arises. Besides a round 4 corner stoppage in a fight where he was injured, Holland has never been knocked out in 35 fights. He is historically very durable so I expect him to take Jack past the first round and give him more adversity than the lower level fighters Jack has been facing.
The difference in experience and level of competition is significant with Holland having 19 fights in the UFC vs Jack’s 5. Jack likes to operate in the pocket but Holland will have a 4″ height advantage and huge 8″ reach advantage so it could be difficult to close the distance consistently without taking damage, and Holland packs KO power in both hands. If any grappling exchanges occur, a Holland submission is live as we’ve seen Jack in deep submissions against lesser submission grapplers in Emeev and Loosa. Jack still has a lot of questions to answer at this stage and Holland is a dangerous, experienced opponent so I’m taking the dog shot at +125.
135 lbs.: Terrence Mitchell vs. Raul Rosas Jr.
The UFC are giving Rosas the definition of a softball after losing his last fight, where he was undeservedly put on a PPV main card and got dominated over 3 rounds. He is extremely young at just 18 years old and in reality should be being developed in a regional promotion, but the UFC have given him a fighter off the sketchy Alaskan regional scene with no grappling to rebound with a win. Rosas should be able to shoot a takedown and get a submission whenever he wants, but the lines are priced accordingly and there’s no clear angle to attack here.
155 lbs.: Christos Giagos vs. Daniel Zellhuber
Another big favourite here with Zellhuber coming in at -275. Zellhuber is still fairly unproven but he’s the better striker and Giagos has historically slowed down after the first 5 to 7.5 minutes. Hopefully Giagos can have a good start to open up a live bet on Zellhuber at a better line.
Prelims
115 lbs.: Loopy Godinez vs. Elise Reed
Godinez is in the -400 range which makes sense. She has massive grappling upside and even if she chooses not to use it like she has in the past she can still win on the feet. Reed is predictable and mostly only throws a right straight, slows down as the fight goes on and has nothing off her back. I have a small stab on Godinez to win by submission at +370 – if you can get +250 or better I still think it is worth a small shot. We’ve seen Reed submitted by lesser grapplers and Godinez usually attempts chokes and armbars when in dominant positions on the ground.
185 lbs.: Josh Fremd vs. Roman Kopylov
Kopylov is sitting in the -400 range. This line would’ve been off if we were dealing with the Kopylov from 2019 but he has clearly improved in recent years, especially his cardio and physique. He is a talented, dangerous kickboxer and has improved his biggest weakness which was defensive grappling. Fremd is a game grinder but doesn’t have much drive on his takedowns and may have to rely on cage pushing without taking any damage to win rounds. We saw him get finished against Gore who has a much lower ceiling than Kopylov then beat two of the lowest level fighters in the division in Dumas and Pickett where he didn’t impress. This is a considerable step-up in competition and he is also on short notice. I think he struggles to close distance consistently and Kopylov catches him at some point but the ML and under prices are not tempting me.
125 lbs.: Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda
Lacerda is one of the most predictable fighters in the UFC. He is 0-4 in the promotion and every fight has been pretty much the same – going crazy trying to get a round 1 finish, gassing within the first few minutes and getting finished himself shortly after. He is fighting Chairez, a tough mexican who we’ve seen take big shots and work out of bad positions on the ground against a legit BJJ artist in Taira. Maybe Lacerda can finally get an early finish but if he doesn’t it’s highly likely he gets finished himself imminently. The price is too high at -250 to take him pre-fight but I will be fishing for a better price on Chairez live after the opening frame if Lacerda has a good start, though I’m expecting the bookies to suspend the line or put out an unplayable line with how obvious the angle is at this point.
125 lbs.: Tracy Cortez vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
I was going into tape thinking Jasmine could be a bet due to her size and Cortez’s long layoff but I came away after tape thinking it’s more of a coinflip like the odds suggest. The layoff could go either way for Cortez, the time off may have helped her to improve or it could be to her detriment, we just don’t know. Both of these girls’ fights often end up turning into competitive decisions where the striking numbers and grappling exchanges even out after 15 minutes and it won’t surprise me if we see a split decision.
155 lbs.: Alex Reyes vs. Charlie Campbell
Reyes is coming off a massive 6 year layoff so we have no idea how he’s going to look. We have only seen him fight once in the UFC, where he stepped in on short notice in a nightmare match-up against Mike Perry up a weight class and predictably got knocked out in the first minute. He is now fighting in his own weight class against Campbell who is a wild striker who packs big power and has a lot of wins by round 1 KO. I’ll pick Campbell to get another early KO but any bet on either side would be a blind dart so it’s best to pass.
115 lbs.: Josefine Knutsson vs. Marnic Mann
Knutsson is approaching the -1000 range. She’s solid in all areas of MMA and looks to have potential while Mann doesn’t look UFC level. I was looking at the finish prop but while she should dominate she has gone to decision in 5/6 fights which included similar if not weaker level of competition and we’re still dealing with lower level WMMA, so the odds on the totals are probably about right.
Main Card
Israel Adesanya (C) vs Sean Strickland (middleweight title)
Adesanya is coming in as a massive -700 favourite and it’s hard to disagree with that line.
With his elite kickboxing pedigree the only two real ways to beat him at 185 seem to be either an explosive knockout or explosive takedowns, of which Strickland possesses neither. He does have good striking metrics but his flat footed style leaves him open to leg kicks, which is Adesanya’s specialty. He also overreacts badly to feints which could get him into big trouble against a striker like Adesanya.
He does have takedown ability but only averages 1 per 15 minutes which won’t be enough and we have seen him choose to strike in fights where it’s obvious he needed to wrestle, such as in the Pereira fight. We have also seen Adesanya defend takedowns from more explosive wrestlers such as Brunson.
With the way Strickland overreacts to feints and struggles with kicks, I expect Adesanya to find an opening for a knockout at some point but we have seen him be more than willing to coast to a decision in 4 of his last 5 wins so it’s difficult for me to trust him to get it at the current line.
Tai Tuivasa vs Alexander Volkov (heavyweight)
Fun heavyweight match-up with Volkov coming in as the -244 favourite.
Tuivasa has big power so always has a punchers chance at heavyweight and he might be able to get an early knockout, especially if he can compromise Volkov with his leg kicks. Other than that Volkov has the reach advantage, volume edge, more dynamic & varied striking and better ability to fight over 3 rounds. Tuivasa is also coming off 2 knockout losses in a row.
I’m not interested in paying heavy juice at heavyweight but I expect Volkov to get it done more often than not and the price feels about right.
Manel Kape vs Felipe dos Santos (flyweight)
Kape is the heavy favourite coming in at -385. He was supposed to fight Kai Kara-France who pulled out. In steps Santos on short notice and I think it’s going to be too much too soon for the young prospect.
Santos is only 22 years old with just 8 fights while Kape has a wealth of experience at 29 years old with 24 fights, with a lot of them being against high level competition including the current UFC champion.
Santos has a classic aggressive Brazilian chute boxe style, which I expect to play into Kape’s counter striking style and leave openings for him to land with power. Santos doesn’t mind taking shots in order to land his own and we’ve seen him in bad positions on the ground against lower level competition. Kape also has great body work and Santos likes to hold a high guard which leaves his body exposed.
Kape has finished 16 out of his 18 wins and has shown finishing ability on both the feet and ground. Santos also slowed down in his last fight and now has to fly from Brazil to Australia.
Kape does like to admire his work sometimes and the young Santos may be able to take a beating, but we’ve already seen Kape dispatch historically durable fighters with more experience. Dvorak is the only fighter in the UFC he failed to finish in a win and he had over 24 fights and a way more conservative and defensively responsible style compared to Santos – yet he was still extremely close to being finished and had to survive being badly hurt with knockdowns and fully locked in submission attempts.
With Kape’s 88.88% finishing rate, the massive experience gap, the short notice for Santos and his aggressive style, I expect there to be openings for Kape to find the finish more often than not and see value in the under 2.5 rounds at -180.
Justin Tafa vs Austen Lane (heavyweight)
Low level heavyweight match-up.
Tafa is the deserved favourite as he has more high level experience in the UFC and is 6 years younger, but we’ve seen him slip on banana peels against mediocre competition and there is more variance than usual when you’re dealing with low level heavyweights so I want nothing to do with this fight.
Tyson Pedro vs Anton Turkalj (light-heavyweight)
Low level light heavyweight match-up but it should be a fun, scrappy fight and there is strong live betting potential.
Pedro is live for an early finish but he has never won a fight that got out of round 1 and his cardio looked worse than ever in his last fight where he appeared to gas around 3 minutes in. It has been so consistently bad that looking to bet against him live if it goes late has become a must.
Turkalj is a technical mess that leaves openings with questionable fight IQ, but he has shown good cardio, heart + the ability to fight through adversity as well as a high takedown rate.
It’s hard to tell who wins pre-fight so pick’em odds feels about right, but if Pedro can’t get Turkalj out of there early there’s a good chance Turkalj will take over and I will be hoping for a playable live line as long as he has not taken too much damage and looks fine.
TV Prelims
Carlos Ulberg vs Da Woon Jung (light-heavyweight)
Fun striking match-up.
Ulberg has been looking good lately and this is a good fight for him on paper but I’m not interested in betting him in the -265 range. We bet him at near pick’em odds against Negumereanu who was a much easier opponent. The market has now adjusted and is pricing Ulberg more accurately.
I once had high hopes for Jung when he first arrived in the UFC but we have now seen him struggle against Sam Alvey and knocked out in the first round by Dustin Jacoby who is more of a volume striker and doesn’t possess the explosive power Ulberg has. And although Devin Clark is a different style to Ulberg, the way Jung lost was concerning as he showed bad fight IQ and failed to pull the trigger enroute to losing all 3 rounds as a -250 favourite. I don’t see a reliable path to victory for him here unless Ulberg punches himself out going for the finish and gasses like he did in the Kennedy fight, but that was a while ago now in his UFC debut and it’s very hard to see Jung taking the damage Kennedy did and still standing.
We’ve seen Jung take opponents down, but with Ulberg’s style and footwork I think it will be difficult for him to close the distance consistently without getting clipped. He was walking into the same predictable check hook over and over against Alvey, and Ulberg has an excellent check hook that we’ve seen him put opponents down with. I expect Ulberg to be too fast, explosive and accurate with his strikes and get another knockout win.
Jack Jenkins vs Chepe Mariscal (featherweight)
This should be a fun fight. Mariscal is quite a sloppy but tough fighter who likes a dog fight while Jenkins is the more technical of the two.
I expect this to be a competitive fight that likely goes to decision but Jenkins has slightly more tools in his repertoire and more ways to win so he is the deserved favourite.
I think Jenkins is the one more likely to get top time and his leg kicks and body work should serve him well in this match-up. I just don’t see much margin for value in the moneyline in the -210 range with his lack of finishing potential in past fights and can see a scenario where Mariscal keeps it competitive enough on the scorecards as Jenkins can sometimes find it difficult to separate himself and make rounds clear.
Jamie Mullarkey vs John Makdessi (lightweight)
Mullarkey is the deserved favourite as Makdessi is now 38 years old and has been inactive the past few years. However Mullarkey is coming off a KO loss to a debutant just 3 months ago and although Makdessi doesn’t have much power, Mullarkey’s striking defence and fight IQ is just too poor to trust him with a price tag like -265. This fight is a total pass from a betting perspective.
Nasrat Haqparast vs Landon Quinones (lightweight)
Nasrat comes in as a heavy -500 favourite. He is another prospect that never panned out like many thought he would, but he should be able to win this fight.
Quinones is making his UFC debut after bowing out of the last season of TUF with a round 1 submission loss to Jason Knight. He is a scrappy pressure fighter but still inexperienced and I think he will struggle with Nasrat’s speed and counters.
Out of all the heavy favourites on the card Nasrat is probably the one I’m least confident in due to his inactivity and some questionable performances but he has only lost to high level fighters and this is a huge step down in competition.
Results:
3-1 | +2.64u
Max Holloway (-170)
Allen’s cardio held up much better than I expected but it was still a comfortable unanimous decision win for Max in the end. As I said in the breakdown, Max lands over double Allen’s volume on average and it ended up playing out that way in the fight with Max landing 147 sig strikes to Allen’s 76. Allen needed big moments or knockdowns to offset the volume and win rounds but he couldn’t deal with Max’s footwork, variety and volume. He did land some good shots but none that hurt Max, whose record of never being knocked down is still intact after another 25 minutes and his 27th UFC fight in the books.
Edson Barboza/Billy Quarantillo fight doesn’t go to decision (-135)
Perfect outcome here. I thought Barboza would either get an early KO on a hittable Billy or we would have to sweat Billy pouring it on a tired Barboza late to get the finish. Thankfully Barboza landed a vintage knee KO in the first while he was still fresh and no sweat was needed.
Brandon Royval (+170)
I said the scrappy Royval would force high variance 50/50 exchanges on a patient Nicolau that prefers a slow pace and either guy could get caught with something. Fortunately for us the variance was on our side this time as Royval landed a perfect knee on Nicolau’s chin as he closed the distance two minutes in and closed the show.
Ed Herman (+195)
Our only flop of the night. It was a valiant effort from the old man but Cummings had more left in the tank and the speed difference was too much to overcome. We needed Herman to make it a dirty fight, get to the clinch and use his size advantage but the fight played out at range where he was always going to be drawing dead outside of a random KO.
Good night overall and a needed rebound after last week. Now let’s build on it with a win next Saturday. We have 5 UFC events in the next 5 weeks with some good boxing in between that there’s a good chance I’ll have bets on.
Thanks all and enjoy the rest of your weekend,
Rob
Results:
0-1 | -2u
Surprising outcome in this one. Would have liked to see the fight play out more and I thought we would get a cagey start before the fight started to warm up, but it immediately became a brawl from the opening bell with both guys trading in the pocket and landing hard shots. Font’s eye began to swell and I thought the tide would start to turn with Yanez damage accumulating, but Font landed the first real good shot on the button and Yanez’s chin didn’t hold up to it.
Yanez had never been finished and showed a great chin in the Grant fight while Font was coming off a ton of damage taken and being knocked down 5 times in his last 2 fights + Font couldn’t hurt Garbrandt, whose chin is completely shot, over 5 rounds which was why Font KO was +700 while Yanez KO was only +160. But with 4oz gloves sometimes all you need to land is one well placed shot in the right place and in hindsight the under at a better price may have been the more optimal position to take.
My only other position I was considering on this card was Waterson at +150 who lost a controversial split decision, so we dodged another bullet there.
6 UFC cards in the next 6 weeks to rebound from this small downswing. See you next Saturday for the Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen card.
Rob
Hi everyone.
I used to send out a recap after every event, discussing what went well with winning bets and what went wrong with losing bets.
I will be bringing them back for every event moving forward as I think it’s helpful to get a better idea of what I was thinking with my reads, things I may have overlooked, what we can learn from losses and improve on etc.
Results:
1-0 | +1.11u
The Peterson fight went about as expected. I thought it’d go one of two ways, Alexander staying on the outside, being technical and picking at Peterson for 3 rounds or Peterson managing to get inside, make it ugly and grapple. Fortunately Alexander managed to stick to his gameplan as a Peterson sub was the only real worry I had for it ending inside the distance, though his sub threat was overrated on the betting line because of Brito’s SUB1 win over Alexander. Brito is an explosive fighter known for early finishes while Peterson is an unathletic grinder with 7/8 of his UFC fights going the distance.
Peterson’s compromised leg from kicks turned out to be the only risk of a finish but Peterson is a very tough journeyman and leg kick TKO’s are super rare, so the over at -135 turned out to be good value and I was happy with the bet.
We have the stacked UFC 287 Pereira vs Adesanya rematch PPV up next, let’s make it 3 winning events in a row and keep this streak alive for as long as possible! Cheers and enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Rob