Results:

3-1 | +2.64u

Max Holloway (-170)

Allen’s cardio held up much better than I expected but it was still a comfortable unanimous decision win for Max in the end. As I said in the breakdown, Max lands over double Allen’s volume on average and it ended up playing out that way in the fight with Max landing 147 sig strikes to Allen’s 76. Allen needed big moments or knockdowns to offset the volume and win rounds but he couldn’t deal with Max’s footwork, variety and volume. He did land some good shots but none that hurt Max, whose record of never being knocked down is still intact after another 25 minutes and his 27th UFC fight in the books.

Edson Barboza/Billy Quarantillo fight doesn’t go to decision (-135)

Perfect outcome here. I thought Barboza would either get an early KO on a hittable Billy or we would have to sweat Billy pouring it on a tired Barboza late to get the finish. Thankfully Barboza landed a vintage knee KO in the first while he was still fresh and no sweat was needed.

Brandon Royval (+170)

I said the scrappy Royval would force high variance 50/50 exchanges on a patient Nicolau that prefers a slow pace and either guy could get caught with something. Fortunately for us the variance was on our side this time as Royval landed a perfect knee on Nicolau’s chin as he closed the distance two minutes in and closed the show.

Ed Herman (+195)

Our only flop of the night. It was a valiant effort from the old man but Cummings had more left in the tank and the speed difference was too much to overcome. We needed Herman to make it a dirty fight, get to the clinch and use his size advantage but the fight played out at range where he was always going to be drawing dead outside of a random KO.

Good night overall and a needed rebound after last week. Now let’s build on it with a win next Saturday. We have 5 UFC events in the next 5 weeks with some good boxing in between that there’s a good chance I’ll have bets on.

Thanks all and enjoy the rest of your weekend,

Rob

Results: 

0-1 | -2u

Surprising outcome in this one. Would have liked to see the fight play out more and I thought we would get a cagey start before the fight started to warm up, but it immediately became a brawl from the opening bell with both guys trading in the pocket and landing hard shots. Font’s eye began to swell and I thought the tide would start to turn with Yanez damage accumulating, but Font landed the first real good shot on the button and Yanez’s chin didn’t hold up to it.

Yanez had never been finished and showed a great chin in the Grant fight while Font was coming off a ton of damage taken and being knocked down 5 times in his last 2 fights + Font couldn’t hurt Garbrandt, whose chin is completely shot, over 5 rounds which was why Font KO was +700 while Yanez KO was only +160. But with 4oz gloves sometimes all you need to land is one well placed shot in the right place and in hindsight the under at a better price may have been the more optimal position to take.

My only other position I was considering on this card was Waterson at +150 who lost a controversial split decision, so we dodged another bullet there.

6 UFC cards in the next 6 weeks to rebound from this small downswing. See you next Saturday for the Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen card.

Rob

Hi everyone.

I used to send out a recap after every event, discussing what went well with winning bets and what went wrong with losing bets.

I will be bringing them back for every event moving forward as I think it’s helpful to get a better idea of what I was thinking with my reads, things I may have overlooked, what we can learn from losses and improve on etc.

Results:

1-0 | +1.11u

The Peterson fight went about as expected. I thought it’d go one of two ways, Alexander staying on the outside, being technical and picking at Peterson for 3 rounds or Peterson managing to get inside, make it ugly and grapple. Fortunately Alexander managed to stick to his gameplan as a Peterson sub was the only real worry I had for it ending inside the distance, though his sub threat was overrated on the betting line because of Brito’s SUB1 win over Alexander. Brito is an explosive fighter known for early finishes while Peterson is an unathletic grinder with 7/8 of his UFC fights going the distance.

Peterson’s compromised leg from kicks turned out to be the only risk of a finish but Peterson is a very tough journeyman and leg kick TKO’s are super rare, so the over at -135 turned out to be good value and I was happy with the bet.

We have the stacked UFC 287 Pereira vs Adesanya rematch PPV up next, let’s make it 3 winning events in a row and keep this streak alive for as long as possible! Cheers and enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Rob

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