Each fight shows the closing range across sportsbooks, as tracked by BestFightOdds, and the list is ranked by the best closing price on the underdog. We include every 2026 winner who closed at +400 or longer, plus the two title-fight upsets that defined the year. For the all-time list, see the biggest upsets in UFC history, and for payouts see the highest-odds UFC upsets.
2026 UFC Upsets Ranked by Odds
| # | Underdog | Closing odds | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Sharaf def. Gable Steveson | +760 to +1200 | UFC 331 (Sep 19) |
| 2 | Song Yadong def. Umar Nurmagomedov | +400 to +700 | UFC Shanghai (Aug 29) |
| 3 | Jeremiah Wells def. Myktybek Orolbai | +520 to +650 | UFC 330 (Aug 15) |
| 4 | Kevin Borjas def. Andre Lima | +450 to +600 | UFC Vegas 119 (Jun 20) |
| 5 | Tresean Gore def. Azamat Bekoev | +430 to +550 | UFC Vegas 115 (Apr 4) |
| 6 | Dustin Stoltzfus def. Mansur Abdul-Malik | +450 to +550 | UFC 330 (Aug 15) |
| 7 | Cody Durden def. Jafel Filho | +400 to +500 | UFC Vegas 116 (Apr 25) |
| 8 | Sean Strickland def. Khamzat Chimaev | +310 to +375 | UFC 328 (May 9) |
| 9 | Justin Gaethje def. Ilia Topuria | around +350 | UFC Freedom 250 (Jun 14) |
1. Sean Sharaf def. Gable Steveson — UFC 331, September 19
Steveson -1350 to -3335 | Sharaf +760 to +1200
The biggest upset of the year and, by closing odds, the biggest in UFC history. Olympic gold medallist Gable Steveson was one of the most heavily backed favourites the UFC has seen, and Sharaf knocked him out 12 seconds into the first round.
2. Song Yadong def. Umar Nurmagomedov — UFC Shanghai, August 29
Nurmagomedov -549 to -1250 | Song +400 to +700
Fighting in China, Song was still a big underdog against Umar Nurmagomedov and knocked him out in the second round. The closing range was unusually wide, so the payout depended heavily on where you bet.
3. Jeremiah Wells def. Myktybek Orolbai — UFC 330, August 15
Orolbai -900 to -1115 | Wells +520 to +650
In front of his home crowd in Philadelphia, Wells came from behind to submit Orolbai with a guillotine in the third round. His line had opened at +263 before the market moved hard toward Orolbai. Some outlets reported Wells at +800 or longer; the best tracked closing price was +650.
4. Kevin Borjas def. Andre Lima — UFC Vegas 119, June 20
Lima -649 to -900 | Borjas +450 to +600
Borjas beat Lima by unanimous decision, one of the longest-priced decision wins of the year.
5. Tresean Gore def. Azamat Bekoev — UFC Vegas 115, April 4
Bekoev around -650 to -800 | Gore +430 to +550
Bekoev closed as a heavy favourite, and Gore submitted him with a guillotine.
6. Dustin Stoltzfus def. Mansur Abdul-Malik — UFC 330, August 15
Abdul-Malik -649 to -800 | Stoltzfus +450 to +550
On the same card as Wells, Stoltzfus submitted Abdul-Malik with a rear-naked choke in the second round, making UFC 330 one of the best nights of the year for underdog bettors.
7. Cody Durden def. Jafel Filho — UFC Vegas 116, April 25
Filho -549 to -715 | Durden +400 to +500
Durden won a unanimous decision against a favourite most books had at around -600.
8. Sean Strickland def. Khamzat Chimaev — UFC 328, May 9
Chimaev -410 to -500 | Strickland +310 to +375
Not the longest price on this list, but one of the biggest results of the year. Strickland won a split decision to take the middleweight title and hand Chimaev the first loss of his career.
9. Justin Gaethje def. Ilia Topuria — UFC Freedom 250, June 14
Topuria around -450 | Gaethje around +350
Topuria came in unbeaten and widely rated among the best fighters in the world. Gaethje’s pressure wore him down until Topuria’s corner stopped the fight after the fourth round, giving Gaethje the lightweight title. Most books closed Gaethje between +300 and +360.
Other Notable 2026 Underdog Wins
- Jordan Leavitt def. Yadier del Valle (UFC, February 21): around +330, unanimous decision.
- Gaston Bolanos def. Michael Aswell (UFC Vegas 119, June 20): around +325, unanimous decision.
- Jamall Emmers def. Lerryan Douglas (UFC, August 22): around +320, first-round TKO.
- King Green def. Daniel Zellhuber (UFC, February 28): around +315, second-round TKO.
- Eric McConico def. Rodolfo Vieira (UFC Vegas 116, April 25): around +310, unanimous decision.
- Brady Hiestand def. Rinya Nakamura (UFC Vegas 121, September 26): around +260, second-round submission.
- Alexa Grasso def. Manon Fiorot (Noche UFC, September 12): around +210, unanimous decision.
Odds in this section are approximate pre-fight prices as reported at the time, rather than tracked closing ranges.
Why 2026 Has Been the Year of the Underdog
Big favourites have lost more often than usual this year, including three unbeaten, heavily backed favourites in Chimaev, Topuria and Steveson. It is a good reminder that a -500 favourite still loses about one fight in six, and that heavy chalk is rarely the safe bet it looks like. Our guide to betting favourites vs underdogs explains how to spot the underdogs worth backing.
Every one of Rob Brown’s picks, underdogs included, has been tracked publicly at betMMA.tips since 2015. Get free UFC picks or see the Premium plans, and follow our betting recaps for how our picks did on each card.
Frequently Asked Questions
Sean Sharaf’s 12-second knockout of Gable Steveson at UFC 331, at up to +1200. It is also the biggest upset in UFC history by closing odds.
Sean Strickland over Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328 (+310 to +375) and Justin Gaethje over Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250 (around +350) were the two big title upsets. Both champions were unbeaten going in.
UFC 330 in August produced two of the year’s biggest, with Jeremiah Wells (+650) and Dustin Stoltzfus (+550) both winning by submission.
We update it after every UFC event. This version covers every card up to and including UFC 332 on October 3, 2026.
Odds source: closing moneylines tracked by BestFightOdds across multiple sportsbooks, checked October 2026.
About the Author
Rob Brown has been betting on MMA professionally since 2015. Every pick is publicly recorded and independently verified — no cherry-picking, no deleted bets. His full record is tracked at betMMA.tips and bettin.gs.
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