The Biggest Upsets in UFC History (And What the Odds Said)

A quick note on how to read the numbers. Sportsbooks don’t all close at the same price, so each fight shows the closing range across books, and we rank by the best price a bettor could get at the close. A +700 underdog means a $100 bet profits $700. If moneylines are new to you, start with our guide on how to read UFC odds.

The Biggest UFC Upsets by Closing Odds

*No tracked closing data exists for 2007; this is the range most often reported.

1. Sean Sharaf def. Gable Steveson — UFC 331 (September 19, 2026)

Gable Steveson arrived as an Olympic gold medallist and one of the most hyped heavyweight prospects in years, and the market priced him accordingly. Sean Sharaf, a Marine veteran, ended it 12 seconds into the first round. At the best closing price of +1200 it is the longest-priced underdog win in UFC history, and even at the shortest book (+760) it ranks near the top of this list.

2. Shana Dobson def. Mariya Agapova — UFC Vegas 7 (August 22, 2020)

Before Sharaf, this was the record. Mariya Agapova was a highly rated flyweight prospect and closed as a huge favourite, with some outlets reporting Dobson as long as +1150. Agapova faded after a fast start and Dobson stopped her with strikes in the second round, which at the time was widely reported as the biggest upset in UFC history.

3. Matt Serra def. Georges St-Pierre — UFC 69 (April 7, 2007)

Matt Serra earned his title shot by winning The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback, and almost nobody gave him a chance against the welterweight champion. He dropped St-Pierre with a right hand and finished him with strikes in the first round. Closing lines from 2007 weren’t tracked the way they are now, so the price is less precise than the fights above, but it is still the title-fight upset every other one gets compared to.

4. Khama Worthy def. Devonte Smith — UFC 241 (August 17, 2019)

Khama Worthy was making his UFC debut against a lightweight prospect the market rated very highly. He stopped Smith in the first round, and his line drifted out from +450 at open, so bettors who waited got the best price.

5. Frankie Saenz def. Iuri Alcântara — UFC Fight Night 61 (February 22, 2015)

One of the quieter fights on this list but one of the longest prices. Saenz opened at +225 and drifted all the way to +775 before beating the experienced Brazilian on the scorecards.

6. Johnny Eduardo def. Eddie Wineland — UFC Fight Night 40 (May 10, 2014)

Eddie Wineland was a former WEC champion and a recent bantamweight title challenger. Eduardo knocked him out in the first round at odds most bettors never considered.

7. T.J. Dillashaw def. Renan Barão — UFC 173 (May 24, 2014)

Renan Barão was on a long unbeaten run and widely seen as one of the best fighters in the world. Dillashaw dropped him with a head kick in the first round, outworked him for four more, and stopped him in the fifth to take the bantamweight title. Dillashaw opened near +305, so the market moved hard against him before fight night.

8. Julianna Peña def. Amanda Nunes — UFC 269 (December 11, 2021)

Amanda Nunes was a two-division champion and the pound-for-pound queen of the sport. Peña dragged her into a brawl, wore her down and submitted her with a rear-naked choke in the second round. Closing prices on this fight varied unusually widely from book to book, topping out at +700.

9. Song Yadong def. Umar Nurmagomedov — UFC Shanghai (August 29, 2026)

Umar Nurmagomedov was priced as a heavy favourite, even fighting in Song’s home country. Song knocked him out in the second round, one of several huge underdog wins in a year full of them.

10. Thiago Santos def. Ronny Markes — UFC Fight Night 38 (March 23, 2014)

Years before he fought for a title, Thiago Santos was a big underdog against Ronny Markes, and knocked him out.

11. Jeremiah Wells def. Myktybek Orolbai — UFC 330 (August 15, 2026)

Fighting in his home city of Philadelphia, Wells came from behind to submit Orolbai with a guillotine in the third round. Some outlets reported Wells at +800 or longer; the best tracked closing price was +650.

12. Roxanne Modafferi def. Maycee Barber — UFC 246 (January 18, 2020)

Maycee Barber was one of the UFC’s most promoted young prospects. The veteran Modafferi outworked her over three rounds to win a clear decision.

Famous Upsets That Closed at Shorter Odds

Some of the most talked-about upsets in UFC history don’t make the top of an odds-based list, because the market gave the underdog more of a chance than people remember.

• Holly Holm def. Ronda Rousey, UFC 193 (2015): +525 to +600. Holm opened at +825, which is where the bigger numbers you often see come from, but money came in before the fight. Her second-round head kick is still the most famous upset in the sport.
• Frankie Edgar def. B.J. Penn, UFC 112 (2010): +620. Edgar took the lightweight title with a unanimous decision in Abu Dhabi.
• Michael Bisping def. Luke Rockhold, UFC 199 (2016): +525 to +575. Bisping took the rematch on a few weeks’ notice and knocked Rockhold out in the first round to win the middleweight title.
• Sean Strickland def. Israel Adesanya, UFC 293 (2023): +350 to +540. Strickland outboxed Adesanya over five rounds to take the middleweight title.
• Rose Namajunas def. Joanna Jędrzejczyk, UFC 217 (2017): +500. Namajunas knocked out the long-reigning strawweight champion in the first round.
• Chris Weidman def. Anderson Silva, UFC 162 (2013): +200 to +210. A huge moment, but the market had Weidman as a live underdog rather than a long shot.

What These Fights Have in Common

Very few of these were “the market was clueless” results. Most were fights where one punch, one scramble or one bad round flipped a fight the favourite was usually going to win. That is the nature of MMA: big favourites still lose more often than their price implies to casual bettors, which is why bankroll management matters so much in this sport. A -900 favourite is priced to lose about one time in ten, and over a full calendar those losses show up.

If you want to find live underdogs before the market moves, our guide to betting favourites vs underdogs explains where sportsbooks tend to misprice fights. For the same fights ranked purely by what a bet would have paid, see our list of the highest-odds UFC upsets, and for this year’s results see the biggest UFC upsets of 2026.

Odds source: closing moneylines tracked by BestFightOdds across multiple sportsbooks, checked October 2026.