UFC 303 Betting Recap

Third-party tracked betting recap for UFC 303, June 29th 2024.

Results:

1-4

-1.43u

 

Thoughts:

Page: Lost the 1st round on the ground, won the 2nd round on the feet, then in the 3rd round he had top position and had the chance to ride out the rest of the round to win the decision but showed bad fight IQ letting Garry up with 2 mins left then gave up his back for the rest of the round. Page was the better striker and Garry had to use grappling he hadn’t really shown in past fights to scrape the win. No regrets here, with slightly better IQ in the 3rd we cash the +275 and +151.

Waterson: Good bet on the over, bad bet on her ML and decision prop. She showed good takedown defence in past fights, especially against Esparza who’s a great wrestler, but it turns out this was her retirement fight which would have made me avoid had I known and she didn’t look good – though she showed toughness to at least cash the over for us. Robertson also showed improvements.

We also had a bet on the over in the Ortega/Lopes fight at +101 which was cancelled mid event due to an Ortega illness. I liked the over there because both are extremely durable and high level Mexican fighters but it’s good for us that Ortega didn’t fight sick and compromised.

After an amazing Q1 of 2024, results dropped off in Q2. Our ROI is still good this year at +15% but wins are needed and my full focus is on smashing Q3.