UFC St Louis Betting Recap

Betting recap for UFC St Louis – 11th May 2024

Results:

1-0

+0.69u profit

+69% ROI

 

Thoughts:

I went with Lewis’ experience & finishing upside and he came through for us despite some questionable fight IQ. Nascimento had some success with grappling but due to his lack of finishing ability on the ground, Lewis was able to get up and have chances to land with his power on the feet which lead to him knocking Nascimento out in the third round.

I am happy with this bet as even with Lewis making some questionable decisions, such as initiating the grappling instead of disengaging and striking, -145 still looked like value as he had the time on the feet he needed to land with his power – as well as having success in the grappling himself. Although Lewis is older, the step up in competition and the difference in experience & knockout power was too much for Nascimento.