UFC Kansas City Betting Recap


3-1 | +2.64u


Max Holloway (-170)

Allen’s cardio held up much better than I expected but it was still a comfortable unanimous decision win for Max in the end. As I said in the breakdown, Max lands over double Allen’s volume on average and it ended up playing out that way in the fight with Max landing 147 sig strikes to Allen’s 76. Allen needed big moments or knockdowns to offset the volume and win rounds but he couldn’t deal with Max’s footwork, variety and volume. He did land some good shots but none that hurt Max, whose record of never being knocked down is still intact after another 25 minutes and his 27th UFC fight in the books.


Edson Barboza/Billy Quarantillo fight doesn’t go to decision (-135)

Perfect outcome here. I thought Barboza would either get an early KO on a hittable Billy or we would have to sweat Billy pouring it on a tired Barboza late to get the finish. Thankfully Barboza landed a vintage knee KO in the first while he was still fresh and no sweat was needed.


Brandon Royval (+170)

I said the scrappy Royval would force high variance 50/50 exchanges on a patient Nicolau that prefers a slow pace and either guy could get caught with something. Fortunately for us the variance was on our side this time as Royval landed a perfect knee on Nicolau’s chin as he closed the distance two minutes in and closed the show.


Ed Herman (+195)

Our only flop of the night. It was a valiant effort from the old man but Cummings had more left in the tank and the speed difference was too much to overcome. We needed Herman to make it a dirty fight, get to the clinch and use his size advantage but the fight played out at range where he was always going to be drawing dead outside of a random KO.

Good night overall and a needed rebound after last week. Now let’s build on it with a win next Saturday. We have 5 UFC events in the next 5 weeks with some good boxing in between that there’s a good chance I’ll have bets on.

Thanks all and enjoy the rest of your weekend,